Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(7:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 7, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-20-M.Cromartie.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.62 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model