Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(3:07) 9-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to SF 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model