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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(13:03) (Run formation) 76-J.Reitz reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 83-D.Allen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth +0.78 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model