4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 31

Chicago Bears 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 4-C.Barth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.62 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model