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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model