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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 1-P.McAfee punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP