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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 31

Chicago Bears 13 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 4-C.Barth 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model