Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to CHI 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 22-C.LeBlanc. Penalty on CHI-47-P.Lasike, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.82 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model