Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Chicago Bears 16

(12:04) 1-P.McAfee punts 74 yards to CHI 4, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model