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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 17

Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 4-C.Barth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model