4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.54 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model