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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 12

Houston Texans 3 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model