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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 59

Houston Texans 6 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(12:04) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.81 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model