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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 80

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to MIN 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 45 for 12 yards (53-M.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.63 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model