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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 99

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:52) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 55 yards to HOU 44, Center-47-K.McDermott. 34-T.Ervin to MIN 38 for 18 yards (84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -4.34 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 99, worth -6.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model