Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 64

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to GB 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. PENALTY on NYG-82-R.Lewis, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at GB 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.17 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model