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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 10-J.Schum punts 33 yards to NYG 45, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.24 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 35, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model