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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 29

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model