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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 53

New York Giants 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to GB 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.72 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model