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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 23

New York Giants 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 3-J.Brown 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model