4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 14 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 10-J.Schum punts 42 yards to NYG 33, Center-61-B.Goode. 17-D.Harris to NYG 39 for 6 yards (32-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model