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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 14 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model