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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 10-J.Schum punts 32 yards to NYG 47, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.18 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model