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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 12

New York Giants 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model