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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.09 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP