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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 61

New York Giants 9 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to GB 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.64 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model