4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 51

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to GB 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris. PENALTY on GB-88-T.Montgomery, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model