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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 30

New York Jets 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.06 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP