4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to NYJ 13, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-20-A.Shabazz.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.04 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model