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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(8:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to NYJ 13, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model