4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(13:08) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to PIT 38, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-95-J.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP