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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to NYJ 11, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model