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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to MIA 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model