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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to MIA 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model