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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 14 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to TEN 33, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani. PENALTY on MIA-35-W.Aikens, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model