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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tennessee Titans
4th & 6 at the 48
Tennessee Titans 21 – Miami Dolphins 14
What Actually Happened
(:02) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 19-T.Sharpe.
The Three Options
GO
+0.19 EP
What Happened
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.12 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -0.36 EP
KICK
+0.40 EP
Model's Pick
- 23% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
- 77% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT
+0.01 EP
- Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
