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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 22

Tennessee Titans 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(10:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model