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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 14 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP