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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 24 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to MIA 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model