Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 91

Miami Dolphins 17 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to TEN 34, Center-92-J.Denney. 87-M.Mariani to MIA 48 for 18 yards (4-M.Darr). Penalty on TEN-47-A.Blake, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at TEN 34. Penalty on MIA-4-M.Darr, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -3.48 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.79 EP
70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model