Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 89

Miami Dolphins 17 – Tennessee Titans 30

(6:18) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to MIA 46, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 89, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model