Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(8:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to TEN 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 19 for 2 yards (28-B.McCain).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.37 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model