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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:58) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 28 yards to MIA 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-52-A.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP