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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 1

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 94-D.Peko reported in as eligible. 25-G.Bernard left guard to NE 1 for no gain (96-A.Johnson; 97-A.Branch).

The Three Options

GO +3.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model