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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 57

New England Patriots 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to CIN 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 16 for 11 yards (43-N.Ebner; 49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model