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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – New England Patriots 25

What Actually Happened

(:24) 32-J.Hill left guard to NE 46 for 3 yards (26-L.Ryan). CIN-61-R.Bodine was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. NE-74-W.Hamilton was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.73 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model