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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NE-29-L.Blount, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +4.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.35 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model