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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to NE 20, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-53-M.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.18 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -2.10 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP