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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT +0.84 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP