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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 26

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 5-D.Bailey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.68 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model